A potentially very strong El Niño could influence weather patterns across the United States this year, although its effects will vary by region and are not guaranteed. The climate pattern begins with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can shift temperature, precipitation and storm patterns around the world.
Experts say northern parts of the U.S. may experience warmer, drier air, fewer clouds and less precipitation. These conditions could allow more pests and weeds to survive the winter, reduce the chill hours fruit trees need to produce a strong crop and leave newly planted shrubs and perennials vulnerable to frost heave when snow cover is limited. Sleet and freezing rain could also replace snowfall, increasing the risk of damage to trees and shrubs from added weight.
The Gulf Coast and Southern states may instead see wetter, cooler, stormier and more overcast conditions. That could increase fungal disease risks for garden plants and turf, slow fruit development, delay spring planting and lead to delayed green-up in warm-season grasses. Heavy rainfall may also worsen drainage problems and contribute to regional flooding.
Gardeners can prepare by monitoring long-range forecasts and checking for freeze and severe-weather risks before they occur. Mulching newly planted perennials and shrubs can protect roots from freeze-thaw cycles, conserve moisture and reduce frost heave. Homeowners should also address runoff problems, clear gutters and inspect trees for branches that overhang homes, driveways or walkways. A certified arborist can assess tree health and structural safety.
Evergreens such as boxwood and arborvitae continue losing moisture through winter, so they should be watered until the ground freezes, particularly if they were recently planted or rainfall is limited. Lawn care should continue as usual, including proper mowing, irrigation and fertilization. Potassium may help warm-season grasses develop roots, while phosphorus should only be applied if a soil test shows it is needed. Cool-season lawns may benefit from nitrogen, irrigation when necessary, overseeding or fungicide treatment.
Leaves should not be left in a thick layer on grass throughout winter because they can block photosynthesis and harm turf health. Instead, they can be composted, shredded or used as mulch. Gardeners should regularly inspect plants for overwintering pests and fungal diseases, especially as the growing season begins.
Spring planting may require adjustments. Drier conditions could mean watering young plants more frequently, while wet or unusually cool soil may require delaying planting or using a cold frame. Experts recommend following official forecasts rather than relying on dramatic predictions on social media, since El Niño makes certain conditions more likely but cannot determine exactly what weather every location will experience.
Sources: House Beautiful.